Τσιπρας - Λαφαζανης - Κωνσταντοπουλου - Βαρουφακης

Οταν εσεις βλεπατε στη Βουλη την ψηφιση του τριτου μνημονιου εγω εβλεπα αυτο:
Στον πηγαιμο για το Χολαργο βρηκα το νομισματοκοπειο. Εμπουκαρα και αδειασα στις τσεπες το ταμειο. Συρε ω, ρε τσελιγκοπουλο στις Ευρωπαικες ραχουλες, ανεβα κατεβα τις Αλπες τους και διαλαλησε οτι εκλεψα ευρω για να γυρισω στις δραχμουλες. Συρτε βρε μαυροφουστανελαδες αρπαξτε τις γυναικες τους να εχουμε νυφουλες, σαν θα ανεβουμε στα βουνα, στις κακοτραχαλες ραχουλες, να πλεκουνε για τον στρατο τις κοκκινες φουφουλες. Σαν θα διαβαινα τον μεγα ποταμο, τον αιματοβαμενο, κατω στον καμπο θε να δω τον Αλεξη πληγωμενο. Την μαχαιρα που του δωσα, που εμπηξα στην πληγη του, δεν την εφαρμακωσα να χασει την βολη του. Θα μεινει πρωθυπουργος, μπορει να κυβερνησει. Απο αντικρι, ομως, ειναι η Ζωη που απο το ατι της δε λεει να ξεπεζεψει. Στα Τουρκοβουνια ανεβηκε ο Καπεταν Γιανης, μεγα παλικαρι, των ακριτων το στερνοπουλο, του προυχοντα των ταλαρων περιλαμπρο ζαγαρι. Ειν' τα ατιμο ατιθασο, και απροβλεπτο συναμμα, μα ειχε ενα βιογραφικο περα για περα χαρμα. Μαζι οι τρεις μας τον ζωσαμε τον Αλεξη με χιλιες εγνοιες. Μου ζαλισατε τα αχαμνα ειπε και εχω και αλλες χιλιες να προκαμω. Γιατι μιλας ετσι αποτομα τον εκοψα με την μια, εμεις που σου σταθηκαμε με αναστημα και ανδρεια. Γιατι βρε λεβεντοπολουλα μαζι μου εγω σας ηθελα, ξεθαρεψε και απαντησε κοιτωντας την Ζωιτσα, μηπως και με την τσαχπινια την παρει αγκαλιτσα. Μα εκεινη καπετανισσα της Μπουμπουλινας κορη, εκανε βημα μπροστα και του πε ορθα κοφτα, δεν εχεις το δικο μου μποϊ, την κοκκινιλα στο ματι, το γαρυφαλλο στην καρδια. Μια μαραμενη γαρδενια καταντησες, εσυ το ριζοσπαστικο αγριοκατσικο, στην εξουσια εσκαρφαλωσες και στα μεγαλα αλωνια, μα εκει σαν εφτασες ενα μπαλτα μονο ειδες και στο σφαγειο εκωλοσες και με κλωτσιες δεν μπηκες τους εκδορεις να κυνηγας με τα σουβλερα σου κερατια, να διωξεις απο δω τον οχτρο, τον αιματοβαμενο, που εσφαξε πληθος του λαου και κρατησε το βιος μας μες στις δικες του τραπεζες και στις ψαροκασελες και ευθυς τα εσυρε μεχρι εις τις Βρυξελλες. Πεταχτηκε και ο Γιαναρος, με μεγα αρχοντηληκι, σαν τον Γιουλ Μπρινερ αυτοκρατορας, σαν τον Σινατρα την φωνη, και με στεντορια χροια του βγηκε ευθυς ο λογος, αλλα μας υποσχεθηκες, τελαλησε, αλλα εσυμφωνησαμε, αλλιως ηταν το πλανο μας και να που καταντησαν. Προδωσαμε οσα αγαπησαμε, γυρισαμε την πλατη και σε Θεο και σε ανθρωπο και θα μας βρει κακο γινατι. Ο Αλεξης αγναντεψε προς εμενα. Εξυσα το μουσι μου μεχρι ο αλεκτωρ να λαλησει. Ο δολιος ο Αλεξης μας, πρωτοβυζο δικο μας παλικαρι, εξεπεσε στην ξενητια, εκιοτεψε στον αθλο, τον Ρουβικωνα δεν εδιαβηκε, δε βαδισε στην φλογα, παρεδωσε τα οπλα του και μπηκε σε πιρογα, ετσουλησε μες τα νερα των τυψεων μοναχος και απο Προμηθεας εγινε ενα μικροσκοπικο ρακος. Δεν ξερω τι να σου που να μην σου 'ναι βαρος. Δεν ξερω τι να κανω που να μην σου κουρεψει εντελως το θαρρος, γιατι το χρεος για παντα θα στεκεται απο πανω σου σκοτεινος φαρος. Σε στηριζω παραμασχαλα και ας βρωμας στο χνωτο, μα σε μαχη δεν θα ξαναρθω εκτος και εαν πελεκησεις τον καπιταλισμο και στον τροτσκισμο γυρισεις. Μαζι να δυναμιτησουμε τις τραπεζες και τα Λουδοβικε σαλονια, να φαμε απο τα ψυγεια τους, να πεσουν τα ολαφυτα τους τα μπαλκονια, να δουν την Τζαγκουαρ νεκρη, χωρις σταλια βενζινη και στην πισινα την ρηχη μια κοκκινη οχια αιμα απο τα παιδια τους να πινει. Εμπρος στου δυναστη καπιταλα την βιλλα εγω θε να ουρησω, μη ξαναδω εγω μπιτε εαν δεν το επιχειρησω. Να λευτερωσουμε τα σεκιουριτι, τους μπατσους, εαν και γουρουνια, γιατι ειναι Λαος, δικα μας αδελφακια που ξεπεσαν για ταλαρα και για σοκολατακια. Το δικαιο με το μερος μας εν, γιατι ειμασταν απο παντα ηρωες, αγωνιστες αγριμια, γιατι στο πουρναρι με κλωσησαν και κειθε μια μερα θα ξαποστασω, μα πρωτα θα ξεκανω καθε αντιπαροχη και καθε εργολαβο, ειδικα τους εθνικους με τις μεγαλες τσεπες. Αυτα δε ειναι ονειρατα, μηδε καταρες ειναι. Αυτο ηταν το πλανο μας, μαζι απο το σχολειο, μαζι απο τον στρατο, μαζι απο το πανεπιστημιο και ως και το πτυχιο, που δεν θα ειχα παρει εγω ποτε, εαν δεν ημουν καθε Νοεμβρη στο Χημειο.

EU & Greek crisis Part II

This weekend 27/6/2015 the dices rolled and the fate isn’t obvious yet.  From one hand we have the heavyweight champions of EU & Co and from the other hand the fly weight champion aka Greece. The situation had a favored boxer from the beginning and so their respective strategies were laid down accordingly. The big one punches, the little tries to fake, but even the blow from the near passing hand of his opponent sakes him all over. The big one in any interval between the negotiating rounds shakes the opponent’s hand telling him how brave he’s and congratulating him for the good fight. That was all folks until this last weekend.

                The little one shaken but not stirred tried to give his first punch back. Many may think that this was the last heroic exit, or the desperate’s move, or the insane‘s act of grandeur. The big one was taken by surprise. He definitely didn’t expect the act of fool he received. He though the minion was under his straight control. But dear EU bureaucrats the flood of money isn’t the flood of blood. And blood is a boiling thing. Too much pressure and it can erupt. Now Europe is between two silly boxers with enough adrenaline on their head and exhausted to see it’s other standing on the ring. The problem is that those were also the two parts of a happy marriage and gave everlasting promises to each other. Furthermore they got too many bets on how well there are going to be all the European countries in this marriage and for the first years they delivered too. Now they try to out intimidate each other, but without the power and the courage to take this last punch until recently.

                As mentioned in this family of boxing aspirations the fight went out of hand. In most of the families it’s the little one that causes the troubles, but the big one that gets accused. Well not exactly this time. That was before the news stopped being just the news and became the global media product they are today. So we hear all about the demerits of the little one from the European media. Yes, this little folk shouldn’t be trusted. He’s a constant underachiever. He never performs what he promises. He resists financial logic in a maniacal way. He can’t perform on his own strength any reform and further, even if he makes one, he can’t assure it really works. He has a byzantine public system that’s a Damocles blade hanging above any productivity attempt. Consequently, this little one was treated as a drug addict from the European family. They served him the medicine the EU doctors subscribed him. They substituted his loans with other loans. That homeopathic procedure usual tends to lower the dependency by gradually lowering the dose. Not in this case. The druggie got hooked deeper and deeper in his loan addiction.

                Let’s’ see the clinical situation of Greece before it entered this boxing contest of negotiations in 2009 from the Greek citizen point of view. This person knew that by that time every born and resided in Greece owned to the county’s creditors nearly 23.000.00€ per head. So for a family of 4 persons this meant approximately 92.000, 00€. The EU wanted those money fast enough to close the mouth of every news producer in the world. How fast could this happen? Not as fast as intended.   So they went the other way around. They let the things take a long way, so long that the problem would have fall out of sight. Things didn’t work well. The medicine didn’t prove to be having the right effects, and the maleness didn’t go out of sight. EU officials though that a reassuring verbalism and their authority will be enough for the rest of the world, but dear lords when money talks you know very well who walks. Everybody else apart the Troika founders believed that the measures taken for Greece where ineffective.

                You have to get your mouth were you get your money, so the rest of the world rested a spectator to this experiment. But one has to ask was the rescue of Greece the real purpose of all this? Ok, there’s no easy straight answer. Little traces, the actual facts, can lead you closer to the truth. From when troika went to Greece there was 25% reduction to the salaries, reduction of the pensions, the unemployment raised 25%, 60% of the youth unemployment, a consistent raise of the taxes and the introduction of many new ones. That’s only the economic part. There are 4 straight years that deaths are more than the births in Greece, there is raise of the number of people without medical care and people who go too late to the doctors and they just pass away in the hospitals. There was reduction of the public cost and now the Greek state produces less than the already little it did. Up to a point many of the negative effects were responsibility of the Greek government to resolve and to protect during the negotiations, but it failed either to make its point, either to raise its productivity. The Greek government only posed resistance on the reduction of its payroll.

                The Troika in those five years made all the calls. There was no legislation regarding or affecting money that could pass without their approval. So the lenders had total control of the Greek economy and in many ways of the Greek government. What ever happened in Greece those five years was under there strait control and influence. E.g. you can find clear evidence of this by reading the comments of Samaras before and after he was named PM. Democracy was clearly in decline in Greece. Most of the legislation was imposed and never got past the parliament. Three people and their employers took and hold the fate of Greece those last five-six years. Another evidence is that from one hand they introduced tax legislature every three to four months and from the other hand they asked the Greek government to attract foreign investments. So it’s pretty unclear how the lenders accuse the Greek government about the failure of their implemented program. From one hand they overestimated the public property for privatization and then accused the Greek government for the lack of success on the matter (here they had some right). There’s an abundance of things like this during the last five years that points towards one reasonable conclusion. Troika and the lenders of Greece had only one interest, to get their money back as soon as possible, even by inflicting damage to the Greek’s state longevity. The flow of cash from Greece to their banks (lenders) was the only prior criteria and the Greek government had all the responsibility to hold its ship together. You may think that this is in reality a government’s job, but the facts show that for maximizing the flow of cash they minimized the power of the government. As a byproduct they constituted an already inefficient government in an incapacitated one. The quality of Greek’s government was in the lenders knowledge from a long time as you can see in the prior note http://ninemia-nemo.blogspot.gr/2015/05/eu-greek-crisis.html.

                Obviously this five years economic experiment was a complete failure. This is more evident if you think that after those efforts and all those years every Greek citizen owns now to his lenders 35.000.00€ per capita, a raise of nearly 12.000.00€ per person. That’s 2.400.00€ per year raise. When the lenders should have noticed? From the Greek citizens point of view the following weekend’s referendum has no meaning. He knows that whatever he chooses he has no escape. It’s only the timetable of his default & foreclosure that’s on the table. The thinking of this government is still unclear, but taking note of the above mentioned is it totally wrong in its act? On the other hand by putting Greece out of Europe is there any hope for Greece? In a globalized world, probably not? Can it stay in Europe and in the Euro zone? Difficult, very difficult. So the real question is “are the lenders so stupid to kill this country if they want their money back”?

EU & Greek crisis

Dear co-Europeans and to whom it may concern.

                We all read too many things about the European crisis and Greece in particular. It may seem that Greeks are the eye of this turmoil, or at least the brute force behind the Aeolus vents that go wild in this desolated from money continent of ours. You’ve heard of all the Greek demerits, of the frivolous lifestyle and of the rightness of the biblical punishment masterfully inflicted on them. That’s all very theatrically dramatic and very easy reading -novel style served for someone not to be suspicious. Can a nation of ten million all be blind to their downhill path? Was Greece saved from their unavoidable disaster by their Euro partners and their helpful hand?

Talking about Greece without talking about history is like a man just out of prison that doesn’t think about women.  But write about it and it’s like having to read the telephone book of Mexico City. To make a long story short we’ll focus on their economy. It’s obvious to anyone that some of each nation’s most intelligent people are their ambassadors put in duty in other countries. As a consequence every country that has an ambassador in Greece has a very good knowledge of the modus operandi of the Greek government, the state servants and the most important entrepreneurs. So there was no mystery about how things were in Greece, who was in command and if he slept face down or on the back. The way the Greek economy went on those last decades is easily described. It was based on the tourism, shipping and export of raw materials, either agricultural or minerals. In the later decades the agricultural sector was in decline and the services sector was in rise. But the later was oriented exclusively in the Greek market. So the exports were in decline and the imports in rise. Bad recipe for a healthy economy, but nothing the world hasn’t seen before.

Furthermore the state operated in a theological way, meaning it believes that it is eternal, and it tries to establish the one and only universal truth in everything it does. The politicians wanted it to keep this way and reinforced that attitude, because it produced more state job positions (more control, less product) and since those were distributed to partisan favorites those were vote producing jobs. Nothing new under the sun again. Nothing the world hasn’t seen before. The main thing that was wrong with the Greek economy is that it’s counterproductive. The state borrowed money instead of the entrepreneurs  and was buying votes by selling state assignments or elevated national economy champions that monopolized the Greek market or created oligarchies, usually with EU money from development programs. The public servants took part in this corruptive operation due to lucrative illegal payments. They also acted as a surveillance force of those markets counteracting via bureaucracy any market opponents of the chosen ones. Foreign operators in the Greek market used local entrepreneurs associated with the local politics to overcome those bureaucratic barriers and take part of the local market and assignments. Usually all the competitions for a state work have as participants conglomerates of some local company with a foreign one. Those connections between locals and strangers were held and promoted, or at least acknowledged by the local ambassadors.

So at the starting point of the Greek drama we have an indebted public sector, not the private and the homes. Even the Greek banks were less exposed than the e.g. German ones with lower dumping, but, unfortunately for them, were tied with the Greek state bonds.  So when it flopped, they did too. We had a market in almost complete state control, with few exports and many imports. Not a good base for recovery. The country had lost credibility due to the last idiots Finance Ministers before and at the beginning of the crisis, Alogoskoufis and Papakonstantinou (add Papandreou the prime minister). Those made stupid confessions of Greek statistics alterations in the data provided to the EU before and after the Greek entrance in the EU mostly for internal political vindictiveness. Those statistics later proved unworthy and insignificant, and last but not least, nothing different than what other countries have done. We always must remember during the Eurocrisis that statistics is a half true and so it’s also a half lie.  And nothing of the abovementioned wasn’t crystal clear to any other state on earth and most importantly to France and Germany.

The plan five years ago was to struggle the Greek economy by cutting the imports, lower the cost of workmanship, cut public spending and improve the productivity and the exports of the Greek market. As any good General knows good intentions aren’t enough. The main thing in a battle apart of the target is how and when and with how many loses. So the first thing that went wrong was the competitive pumping of the Greek economy by lowering the local demand and the local work cost. In a bleeding wound you first want to stop the bleeding. But in Greece they cut the cost in the private sector and resisted as much and as long they could in the public sector. They deregulated the maximum possible the work market. As a net result Greece still has a public sector overpriced and underachieving from which continues to lose money and a private sector that shrank “unexpectedly” quick because there wasn’t any public money pumping its veins any more. Now there’s unemployment of 30%, which means that in reality is 36% (there’s always a discrepancy between the official statistics and the real ones, numbers by the Greek General Confederation of Labour). The local work force saw salary cuts of more than 25% and most of the jobs are now part time. Also 30% of the active workforce suffers from salary delay payments of 3-4 months, or even worst (estimated at 1million workers). Those reforms were probably laden due to Greek bankers and the Greek hotel entrepreneurs that wanted to slush their workforce and reduce their costs, and were adopted firstly by the Greek government and then by the Troica. It’s difficult to be sure about who makes the first move on those things, who brings the ideas on the table, because there’s too much propaganda and organized misinformation in the media, either Greeks either global. We must take note that the economy crisis of 2008 was held in the USA and we haven’t completely overcome it yet. So the interest in the Greek and Euro crisis is global. But most of what is written in this issue is easily accessible in the internet and if it’s the writer’s interpretation it’s based on the contradiction of the statements of the parts involved prior and after their acts, p.e. cutting of the Greek debt in the beginning of the program.

With bank lending inexistent, consuming reduced to the minimum, with no public spending, only cutting; there was the last big hit to the Greek economy from the IMF agenda, to raise taxes. So in a private market with too many companies of under 500 employers and too many self employed that only meant the closure of many of them. In this stage of the plan those unemployed and   with the reforms that should have accompanied those cuts should have created the spring on which the Greek economy should have rebounded almost immediately. There were only two reforms of any significant interest apart from the deregulation of the jobs. One was the freeing of the transports and the other of the milk market. How they went? If you can see any positive effect or you are on drugs or your oculist and neurologist haven’t seen you for too long. And this thing of Greek paradoxes is all over those five years. So there is no spring, no launch. There’s only stagnation and sinking. Even if the salvation program stipulated on economics had rough edges, then came the politicians and blurred the things. The targets where there, but the timing was always wrong. Its common believes nowadays that the rhythm of the debts payoff from the Greeks is out of reach by any government apart from a Hercules and Midas crossover. Germany insists that this rhythm must be maintained, and so does the rest of their band. But German politicians made a promise to their voters that knew from the beginning it was outlandish to fulfill, that they’ll move their bank-private debt (who lend to south Europeans) to the German taxpayers, but this new loans will be absolutely repaid back. Further this austerity south stream was obviously creating a counter vent of money from South Europe to Germany that counterbalanced many of the woes of German banks that are too big to fail. Also there was a stream of young and highly educated South Europeans immigrating in Germany and the north of Europe in generally. So from one hand we have an impoverished South Europe that is losing youngsters to the north Europe and out of the Continent and from the other hand we have a North Europe that is widening its competitive gap with the weak south neighbors. Why stop this?

Troica only cared that the stream of recovered debt was held steady. Reforms, development, toxic effects of the program interested them as much as someone who gets big bonus for the first and nothing for the rest. Now everybody agrees that there should have cut a big part of the Greek debt in the beginning of the program, that the cut in the second program was too small and too late… Except the Germans of course:  “Why mess with a toy that’s not rotten and in any way suits you too”. Good mechanics thinking. If you are from another continent you may think but why the hell don’t guarantee their debts as one economic entity they want us to consider them and find their way between them without risking the global economy? Because the euro has to stay down, so the German export keeps raising. As one politician sometime mentioned “it’s the economy stupid”. So we keep the fear that Greece will blow first, and then EU will blow until Germany and its band members start losing money from the situation, or lose politic credibility (which is also money) and in the meantime they find a way to convince their voters that they’ll have to take more debt on their back. The problem is that those voters have made and are still doing economic sacrifices to keep the German economy competitive, but the retribution of those sacrifices was received from the German economic aristocracy and then was loaned to the South Euro partners and afterwards they have gambled with those loans and when they lost their gambling and had to pay achieved the nationalization of their debt. How many times can you fool a voter and how many promises can you break?

If you are a Greek politician the answer is many. Goldfish and Greek voters are close related cousins. Now in Greece there’s a new government, the fourth in five years. It was elected by promising the impossible. To make the Germans change route. What a promise you may think, but think again. In a country that doesn’t want to change it was the right publicity to get elected. “I’ll change the others”. And this is the common thing in Europe. It’s always the others. So now Europe has two parts that are trying to do the wrong thing and between so many political lies and so many economic mistakes time is clicking away. In the meantime Greek citizens (and Spanish, Italians, etc.) are watching their life passing away meaningless, struggling to keep up with the raise of the cost of life and the taxes inflicted.

So all this politic who benefits? Is this a ephemeral sacrifice for a better future. The South of Europe asks when, the north answers when the time is right. Go figure. In economics the base is addiction and subtraction. The rest is sociology. But is this Europe, democratic? Is it only a economic experiment that went wrong or was it the economic bait to make the continent a country? In the time of globalization which European country can prosper alone? Probably none. Even Germany…